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agenda 4

Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 11 – 15 de febrero 2013(Inglés)

In the euro area, preliminary estimates should point to -0.4% q/q contraction in euro area GDP, with national growth rates at -0.45% q/q in Germany, -0.2% q/q in France, -0.6% q/q in Italy, and -0.45% in Holland. …..


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            On an annual basis, euro area GDP is estimated to slow to -0.7% y/y, from a previous reading of -0.6% y/y. The weak phase in the cycle is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, into the opening months of 2013. The trend of GDP is forecast to return into neutral growth territory already in the opening quarter of this year only in Germany. The latest monthly surveys suggest that the worst is over for the euro area.
            Some important data releases are due this week in the United States. In January, retail sales are estimated to have moved little, cooled by the tax hike at the beginning of the year, and industrial output should show a modest change. Import prices in January are expected to be up, in the wake of higher energy prices. In February, the Empire index should improve, while staying just below zero, and consumer confidence should show a recovery following the January decline.

             

            Monday 11 February
            Euro area
            – France. Industrial output is estimated to have dropped by 0.2% m/m in December, after rising unexpectedly by +0.5% m/m in November. Energy production should provide a positive contribution for the second month in a row. We also expect a 0.6% m/m contraction in the manufacturing sector. In the quarter, output is forecast to be down by 1.7% q/q, from -0.3% q/q in the summer months. The INSEE survey of manufacturing companies has been yielding see-sawing findings, but slowed in January compared to the two previous months. The weakness of French manufacturing may continue into the opening months of this year.

             

            Wednesday 13 February
            Euro area
            – Euro area. Industrial output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% m/m in December, driven by a recovery in manufacturing in Germany and, to a lesser extent, in Italy. Output would close the quarter with a sharp contraction -2.2% q/q, from +0.3% q/q in the summer. The reading would be consistent with our estimate for a -0.4% q/q contraction in GDP at the end of 2012.
            The indications provided by the latest monthly surveys point to a stabilisation, on low levels, of industrial activity in the euro area.

             

            United States
            – Import prices in January are forecast up by 0.7% m/m, from -0.1% m/m in December. Once again, prices were probably pushed up by rising oil prices as of the last week in December, an upswing that is still under way. Natural gas prices are likely to have also contributed to the rise in the reading net of oil.
            – Retail sales are estimated to have increased in January by 0.2% m/m, helped by a positive contribution from the auto component. Higher gasoline prices should also have supported sales net of autos, expected to show a 0.2% m/m rise. Sales will probably slow after two strong monthly performances at the end of 2012, as household spending will be impacted by the tax hike implemented at the beginning of 2013.

             

            Thursday 14 February
            Euro area
            – Euro area. The preliminary estimate for 4Q 2012 is expected to point a -0.4% q/q contraction in GDP, from -0.1% q/q in the summer months. Year-on-year, GDP growth is expected to slow to -0.7% y/y, from -0.6% y/y previously. While the initial estimate does not provide a breakdown of data by demand components, it is very likely that the drop was due to a slowdown in domestic demand, and to a temporary reduction in exports. The recession should continue into the opening months of 2013, although the pace of GDP contraction should be slower, at -0.1% q/q.

            – Germany. GDP growth is expected to slow by -0.45% q/q, from +0.2% q/q in the summer months. In year-on-year terms, GDP growth is estimate to have slowed to 0.6% y/y, from a previous rate of 0.9% y/y. The slowdown was probably due to a contraction in exports, and to slowing household spending, combined with a weak fixed investment trend. As average growth in the year, GDP should be up by 0.9% (+0.8% net of calendar effects). The weak exit
            from 2012 will affect annual growth in 2013, which we forecast at 0.6%. Already at the beginning of 2013, German GDP should return into neutral territory, and subsequently accelerate as of the second quarter of the year, driven by demand for capital goods from noneuro area countries.

            – France. French GDP is estimated to have performed better than the euro area average in the closing months of 2012, and to show a contraction of just -0.2% q/q from +0.1% q/q in the summer months. Year-on-year, GDP should be down by 0.2% y/y, from the zero reading of 3Q 2012. As was the case in the rest of the euro area, the slowdown was probably due to a contraction in domestic demand, and in particular in consumption, which we see on the decline by around 0.2% q/q, two-tenths less than the estimated AE average.

            – Italy. The recession seems to have deepened in the closing months of last year, and we expect the preliminary estimate to point to a -0.6% q/q drop in GDP, from -0.2% q/q in the summer months. Year-on-year, GDP contraction should come in at 2.3% y/y. Domestic demand, and in particular investments in machinery, are expected to have slowed further compared to 3Q 2012. The only positive contribution to GDP growth is expected to have come from foreign trade. In terms of the yearly average, Italian GDP should be down by 2.1%. We expect fiscal policy and financial conditions to continue representing a drag on domestic demand growth in 2013; however, GDP contraction should be smaller, at -1.0%.

             

            Friday 15 February
            United States
            – The NY Fed’s February Empire index should recover to -1 from -7.78 in January, marking the seventh consecutive month in negative territory. The survey was much poorer than the ISM not only in terms of the activity index, but also of the breakdown, generally pessimistic in January. We expect current conditions to improve gradually and to allow a return into positive territory by the end of 1Q 2013. Expectations on a 6-month horizon improved in January, to levels consistent with a modest increase in activity.
            – Industrial production is estimated to be up in January by 0.2% m/m. The Employment Report highlighted a modest contraction in work hours in manufacturing, which should result in a flat output in the sector. However, relatively poor weather conditions are expected to have fuelled a rather sustained increase in the output in the utilities sector.
            – Consumer confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan in February (preliminary) is expected to show an improvement to 74.5 from a final January reading of 73.8. At the end of January, the survey had already pointed to a recovery, following the plunge in the preliminary reading, impacted by tax increases. As soon as a lasting improvement of labour market conditions is detected, confidence is likely to be restored to the positive path observed for the better part of 4Q 2012.


            Appendix

            Analyst Certification
            The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

            Important Disclosures
            This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
            Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
            This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
            No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
            This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
            Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
            US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

            Valuation Methodology

            Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

            Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

            Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

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