ETFWorld.es

Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 11 – 15 de marzo 2013(Inglés)

agenda 4

In the euro area, January industrial output data for France, as well as the euro area average, should  confirm that economic activity stabilised at the beginning of the year. German exports are  expected to recover, after a weak phase at the end of 2012. Inflation in France could rise back up  by two tenths in February, to +1.4% y/y, although the euro area average should be confirmed on  the decline by two tenths to 1.8% y/y…….


            Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from ETFWorld
            Click here to register for your free copy 


            Many data releases are due this week in the  United States.  Activity data should confirm the  reacceleration of the manufacturing sector, with the Empire Index in expansive territory in March,  and industrial output showing solid growth in February. As regards spending, retail sales should  snow a modest rise in February in real terms, and the recovery in confidence should be put on hold  due to renewed uncertainties over US fiscal policy. February price indicators (CPI, PPI, imports) are  estimated on the rise, driven by energy prices, as opposed to a very modest uptrend of the core  components. In Japan, Parliament will vote the appointment of the new BoJ leadership, paving the  way for the likely implementation of new monetary stimulus already in April.
            Monday 11 March
            Euro area

            Germany. January data should outline a +0.7% m/m rise in exports, as opposed to a  1.5% m/m  contraction at the end of 2012, in line with the recovery in global demand signalled by the  global PMI and by international trade indicators. The  trade balance is estimated to show a  surplus of 13 billion euros.

            France. Industrial output is estimated to come in broadly stable in January, after contracting  slightly at the end of December. Manufacturing output should remain very sluggish (+0.1%  m/m), as opposed to a one point drop in the production of energy. The January rate would leave  output on course for a stagnation in March, following a 1.8% q/q in December 2012. While  French surveys at the turn of the year pointed to a stabilisation of the economic cycle, a recovery  in step Germany’s did not materialise.

            Spain. Annual data should confirm the public sector deficit, net of the bank bailout, at 6.7%, in  2012, down from 8.96% in 2011. The deficit increases to 9.4% of GDP in 2010 and 9.9% in  2011, when taking into account the recapitalisation of banks.  

            Japan

             The Lower House of Parliament will vote on the appointment of the new BoJ leadership, with  the replacement of the governor and the two vice governors. The government has nominated H.  Kuroda (current chairman of the Asian Development Bank) as governor, and Mr Nakaso and Mr  Iwata as vice-governors. The Upper House should vote by 15 March. The nominees are expected  to be appointed, so that the Board will be operational on 19 March, the date which marks the  end of the current governor’s and vice-governors’ mandates. The new leadership will be in office  in time for the April meeting (3-4 April). We  think additional monetary stimulus (open-ended  purchases in terms of size and time) and the extension of the maturities of purchased JGBs are  likely to be announced with the publication of the six-monthly report, which will include the new  macroeconomic forecasts, at the meeting of 24-25 April.

            Tuesday 12 March
            Euro area
            Germany. Inflation in February should be confirmed as having dropped at the national level, to  1.5% y/y from 1.7% y/y the previous month, with the harmonised rate down to 1.8% y/y  from 1.9% y/y. German inflation is expected to slow further in the months ahead, but to rise  back in second half of the year. Inflation is forecast to average 1.9% in the year, vs. 2.1% in  2012.

            Wednesday 13 March
            Euro area

            Industrial production  is estimated to have increased by +0.2% m/m in January, following the  surprise surge at the end of 2012 (+0.7% m/m). For the time being the recovery is proving  modest, in line with confidence surveys. If confirmed, the January rate would leave output on  course for a stabilisation in March, as opposed to a -2.4% q/q drop at the end of 2012.

            The Inflation should climb back in February by two tenths, to 1.4% from a 1.2% y/y the  previous month, due to the energy component and to seasonal effects. In the month, consumer  prices are estimated to have risen by +0.6% m/m. Harmonised inflation is forecast at 1.5%,  from a previous rate of 1.4%. Inflation should stay close to the levels estimated for February, and subsequently rise back towards the end of 2013.

            United States

            Import prices  in February are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m, driven by higher oil  prices for the second month in a row. Net of oil, import prices should record a limited rise, of  0.1% m/m. In February, and even more so in March, import prices should moderate as a result  of the appreciation of the exchange rate.

            February retail sales are expected to be up by +0.7% m/m in terms of the total aggregate, and  by 0.6% m/m net of the auto component. In February, motor vehicle sales increased compared  to the previous month, rising from 15.2 million units ann. to 15.3 million (+0.7% m/m): the  industry is estimated to make a positive contribution to overall sales. Data should record a sharp  increase in the gasoline item, due to higher prices, although an overall improvement in spending  is expected following the slowdown in January (+0.1% m/m), due to the negative impact of the  tax hikes enforced at the beginning of 2013. The indications provided by weekly sales data are  mixed, with the Redbook index pointing to a +1.3% m/m increase, and the ICSC index only just  in positive territory at +0.1% m/m. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying picture is improving  on the whole: consistently recovering home prices and stock market indices, while interest rates  stay at historically low levels, have positive implications on the net wealth of households and on  the spending trend. In real terms, retail sales  should show a moderate increase (+0.2% m/m),
            and the CPI is forecast to rise by 0.5% m/m.

            Thursday 14 March
            United States

            The February PPI  is estimated to be up by 0.6% m/m (1.6% y/y), pricing in the rise in energy  prices at the end of January, not included in the January survey. The core index is forecast to  increase by 0.2% m/m (1.8% y/y), just above the trend of between 0.1% and 0.2% m/m  observed since mid-2012. February should bring a modest rebound in auto prices, that were  especially weak in January. There are no indications of an acceleration in producer prices, even in  light of the manufacturing sectors survey, which show only a marginal increase in prices  received.

            Friday 15 March
            Euro area

            The second estimate should confirm euro area  inflation at 1.8%, down from a previous rate  of 2.0%. The trend of consumer prices net of the energy and fresh food components (as  preferred by the ECB) could slip to 1.4% from 1.5% previously, hitting a low since 2010.  Average inflation in 2013 is still estimated at 1.8%, but risks are skewed to the downside, on  core prices in particular.

            The number of employed people is estimated to have dropped by -0.3% q/q in the closing  months of 2012, following a -0.2% q/q contraction over the Summer months. Recession in  the euro area will continue to weigh on the employment trend at least until the beginning of  the Summer.
            United States

            The NY Fed’s Empire index  is forecast to rise in March to 12.5 from 10.04  in February. The  breakdown of the survey was positive in February, and pointed to an expansion of all the main  components; the index for the six-month outlook also rebounded sharply in February.  Manufacturing sector surveys univocally indicate an improvement, and are compatible with an  acceleration of growth in the sector.    

            The February CPI is estimated to come in at +0.5% m/m, after staying flat in January. The core  index should show an increase of +0.1% m/m (2% y/y), down from +0.3% m/m in January.  The headline index will probably be affected  by the rise in gasoline prices, after three  consecutive months on the decline: gasoline prices reversed at the end of January, and  between the survey date of the January CPI and the end of February they grew by 13.7%.  Seasonal factors are not expected to have significantly capped price increases in the sector in  February, but they should do so in the months ahead. As regards the core index, apparel is  estimated to correct (after the +0.8% m/m rise recorded in January), with the education and  communication item also slowing after the +0.4% m/m change in January. The ex-energy  shelter component should keep up its trend of moderate 0.2% m/m increases.      

            Industrial production in February should show a 0.4% m/m increase, as opposed to a -0.1%  m/m decline in January. Manufacturing output is expected to grow at a more solid pace  (0.5% m/m), based on the rise in the output component of the ISM, up to 57.6 in February (a  high since April 2012) vs. an average of 53.2 in the previous four months.    

            Consumer confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan a March (prel.) should stay  close to last month’s reading, rising to 78 from 77.6 in February. The positive trend of the  markets and the gradual improvement in labour market conditions should outbalance the  negative effects of the announcement of the enforcement of automatic cuts on public  spending, also considering that initially the cuts are not expected to have negative  repercussions on households. The latest confidence indicators were mixed: the Bloomberg  Consumer Comfort Index (weekly) kept rising, returning on levels close to those recorded in  the summer of 2012, while the March IBD Tipp corrected sharply, on the worsening of the  economic policy picture.


            Appendix

            Analyst Certification
            The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

            Important Disclosures
            This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
            Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
            This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
            No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
            This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
            Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
            US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

            Valuation Methodology

            Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

            Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

            Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

            Artículos similares

            Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal

            Falco64

            Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 01 – 05 de abril 2013(Inglés)

            1admin

            Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 25 – 29 de marzo 2013(Inglés)

            1admin