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Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 25 – 29 de marzo 2013(Inglés)

agenda 4

In the euro area, the EU Commission’s economic sentiment index is expected to come in lower  by 1.1 in a March, while staying at stronger levels than the PMI. The preliminary estimate should  point to a drop in inflation in March, to 1.6% from 1.9% in Italy, and to 2.6% from 2.8% in  Spain. Retail sales are expected to slow by 0.6%m/m in Germany, after surging in January. In  France, consumer spending is forecast to reduce……………


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            Busy calendar of data releases in the United States. The Chicago PMI should stay on high values  in March, and consumer confidence is expected  to feel the effects of the enforcement of the  automatic spending cuts. February data should prove to be positive, with durable goods orders,  personal spending, and personal income all on the rise; new home sales are estimated to have  dropped following their sharp rebound in January, while keeping up a positive trend. The final  4Q 2012 GDP growth estimate should be revised upwards again.

            Monday 25 March
            Euro area

            Italy. Consumer confidence may turn back down in March, to 85.5 after rebounding to 86 in  February. The index would in any case stay above the long-term low of 84.7 hit last January.
            Uncertainty over the political picture is dampening sentiment, in a picture probably already marred by increasing employment concerns; the only respite for households will come from  the ongoing decline in the inflation trend.

            Tuesday 26 March
            Euro area

            France. The  consumer confidence index is expected to drop to 85 in March, from 86 in
            February. Propensity to spend has decreased in the opening months of the year, hitting a low  at values last seen early in 2009. The savings capacity index also remains depressed. The first  effects of the stimulus package put in place to spur competitiveness and the labour market by  the French government in January, with the CICE programme, should become visible in 2Q  2013 at the earliest, and are likely to express themselves fully in 2014.

            United States

            Orders of durable goods are expected to rise by 3.8% m/m in February, from -4.9% m/m in  January, in the wake of a sharp rebound in the  civil aviation segment. Net of the transport  item, orders should be up by 0.6% m/m (from +2.3% m/m in January). The orders component  of the ISM has risen solidly since the beginning of 2013, signalling that the orders trend  should accelerate compared to the end of 2012.  

            The Conference Board Consumer confidence index is estimated to drop to 67 in March from  69.6 in February. The indications provided by the University of Michigan survey are negative  for March, due to worsening sentiment tied  to the enforcement of the automatic cuts  contained in the Budget Control Act, and uncertainty on the fiscal policy front. The  Conference Board’s measure should also show a decline in March, while staying well above its  January level (58.4), driven down by the tax hikes at the start of the year.     
            New home sales in February should be down to 420k from 437k in January. The January change  was excessively strong, and the sales figure hit a peak since July 2008. Even a 3.8% correction  would keep new home sales on a solid uptrend.

            Wednesday 27 March
            Euro area

            The EU Commission’s economic sentiment index  is expected to drop to 90 from 91.1 in  February, marking a hiatus in the recovery in confidence observed since the end of 2012. The  composite PMI index for the euro area signalled a slowdown in activity in March in Germany as  well, both in manufacturing and in the services sector. Households’ confidence should be  confirmed stable, and sentiment in the retail sales segment should stay depressed but broadly  unchanged compared to the February survey. The EU Commission’s index would therefore stay  on higher average levels than in 2H 2012, and continues to  point to a recovery in productive  activity, albeit not sufficient to propel the euro area out of the recession.   

            Spain. The preliminary inflation estimate should reveal a drop to 2.6% y/y in March, from 2.8%  y/y the previous month, as a result of moderating energy prices. In the months ahead, Spanish  inflation is expected to moderate further, and to bottom out at 1.6% y/y in the summer. Risks to  the forecast are skewed to the downside, given  the significant slack in the economy, and in  particular plunging consumer spending.

            Thursday 28 March
            Euro area

            The trend of the M3 aggregate is expected to prove broadly stable in March, at 3.5%y/y. The  M2 aggregate should continue to grow at a strong pace (with deposits with maturities longer  than three months at the fore, which recovered in 4Q 2012), while the M3–M2 aggregate will  remain in negative territory, as a marked preference for liquidity continues to prevail. Among the  counterparts of M3, we expect a slight recovery in lending to the private sector, to -0.8% from a  previous rate of -1.1%y/y).

            Germany. Unemployment  is forecast to increase by six thousand units in March, due to the  lagged effect of the weakness of the economy recorded at the end of 2012. The unemployment  rate is expected to stay put at 6.9%. We cannot rule out increases in the months ahead, up to  7.1-7.2% in the summer.  

            Retail sales are forecast to correct, reabsorbing in part their January surge (+3.0%  m/m). We expect a 0.6% m/m decline, which if confirmed would in any case leave sales on course for a +1.7% q/q increase a March. Vehicle registrations decreased by 3.0% m/m in  February (based on our estimates). On the whole, consumer spending could accelerate to +0.3%  q/q in 1Q 2013 from +0.2% q/q in 2H 2012.

            Italy. Business confidence could retrace for the second month in row in March, to 77 from 77.4  in February. The index would in any case stay above the recent low of 75.9, reached in  December. The uncertain political picture adds  to the dampening of confidence caused by  persistently weak domestic demand.

            United States
            The final estimate of 4Q 2012 GDP growth should be revised to +0.6% q/q ann. from 0.1% q/q  ann., in the wake of very strong data on investments in company structures, and a less negative  contribution from inventories.  

            The Chicago PMI should stabilise in March at close to its February level, rising to 57 from 56.8.  The survey was univocally positive in February, with orders and output at 60.2, and employment  down to 55.7 to 58. Growth in the manufacturing sector should continue, based on the positive  indications provided by monthly surveys and data.

            Friday 29 March
            Euro area

            France. Consumer spending is estimated to have increased by 0.4 m/m in February, after the – 0.8% m/m contraction observed in January. Vehicle registrations are recovering from the  previous month’s decline. If confirmed, the reading would place the quarterly trend on course  for a -0.6% q/q decline from -0.1% q/q in December, suggesting a slowdown in households’  spending in the opening months of the year.

            Italy. Consumer prices  are forecast up by one-tenth in March, on a par with February. In  harmonised EU terms, prices would rebound by 2.1% m/m, given the effect of the  comparison with January-February end-of-season sales prices. The energy component should  have contributed to easing pressures on prices. Inflation would slow by four-tenths as a result,  both in terms of the national measure (from 1.9% to 1.5%) and of the harmonised rate (from  2% to 1.6%).

            United States

            Personal spending  is estimated to have increased in a February by 0.7% m/m, driven by  gasoline price increases and by a moderate perk-up in real consumption. As the deflator is  forecast to rise by 0.5% m/m, real spending should edge up by a moderate 0.2% m/m. Personal income should rebound, showing a +1% m/m change after sliding by -3.6% m/m in  January, on the back of the payroll tax hike. Employment Report data highlight a sustained  change in earned income. The savings rate should recover a part of the January drop, rising  back to 2.7% from 2.4%.

            Consumer confidence  as surveyed by the University of  Michigan in March (final) should  brighten back to 75, from a preliminary reading of 71.8, recovering part of the ground lost  compared to February, when the index had  risen to 77.6. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort  Index has stayed on a positive in recent weeks, signalling that the dip in confidence seen in  early March, tied to the enforcement of the automatic cuts, may be short lived. The negative  change was especially strong for the expectations index.


            Appendix

            Analyst Certification
            The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

            Important Disclosures
            This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
            Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
            This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
            No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
            This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
            Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
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            Valuation Methodology

            Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

            Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports

            Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

            Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

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