Agenda financiera – Calendario semanal: 4 – 8 de febrero 2013(Inglés)

agenda 4

In the  euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting, which should in any case prove  interlocutory. Few macro indicators are due out  this week: data on the industrial sector in  Germany (orders and output) should outline modest growth, and industrial output in Italy is  expected to have rebounded in December. ……


Retail sales are estimated to have dropped sharply in  the closing month of 2012. Possible an upward revision on the January’s services and composite  PMIs. Lastly, consumer prices in Italy and producer prices in the euro area are expected to  confirm their downtrend.

The week’s calendar of data releases is rather quiet in the United States. The non-manufacturing  ISM should correct somewhat in January, while staying on high levels, consistent with solid  growth in the services sector. The trade balance  deficit is expected to contract in December,  after rising significantly in November: exports should resume growing after slowing the previous  month, also as a result of hurricane Sandy. Productivity in 4Q 2012 is estimated to have  dropped, given the weak GDP data. The CBO’s Budget Outlook will lay the grounds for  negotiations in Congress over the budget.
Monday 4 February
Euro area

Producer prices  should be down by three tenths in December, vs. -0.2% m/m the previous  month. In all the main countries, prices decreased in the month. The years-on-year trend  would stay stable at 2.1%. Surveys point to a further easing of pressures upstream of the  production chain in the next few months.

Tuesday 5 February
Euro area

The second reading of the services and composite PMI indices could see an upward revision,  strengthening the rebound scored in January. The services and composite PMIs could be  revised upwards by one and two tenths respectively, to 48.4. PMIs are still consistent with  GDP contraction, but are signalling an easing of recession at the beginning of 2013.

Retail sales could be down by -0.8% m/m in December, after rising by one tenth the previous  month. The rate was driven down by a -1.7% m/m drop in Germany, and a -2.2% m/m  plunge in Spain. Sales in the quarter would therefore be down -1.5%, after recording a stable  trend in the previous three months. Households’ confidence surveys are still failing to show  any sign of a recovery in spending.

Italy. Consumer prices may have risen by one tenth in January (half the previous month’s rise).  In terms of the harmonised EU rate, prices are expected to drop by 1.8% m/m due to seasonal  effects, which the national index does not take into account. In the year, inflation would drop  to 2.1% from 2.3% in terms of the NIC, and  stay at 2.6% at the harmonised level. The  monthly trend was probably affected by higher fuel prices and some tariff increases (gas,  motorway tolls) despite a favourable seasonal effect. We believe there is room for a further  drop in inflation in the months ahead.

United States

The  non-manufacturing ISM should correct somewhat in  January, to 55.2 from 55.7 in  December (a high since February 2012). The survey proved markedly positive in November and  December, with the activity index on levels above 60, and the orders index above 58 for 2  months in a row. The estimated correction of the different components of the survey should  be moderate, with no compromise to indications of robust growth in the services sector.

The CBO will publish its Budget and Economic Outlook for 2013-2023, updated with the  measures taken at the start of the year to avoid the fiscal cliff. The Outlook will lay the  grounds for negotiations in Congress over the automatic spending cuts and the 2013 budget.   

Wednesday 6 February
Euro area

Germany.  Factory orders  could rebound (by 0.5% m/m) in December, from a -1.8% m/m  contraction the previous month. The year-on-year trend would stay negative (-1.2%), but  mark a recovery from the low hit in June (at  -7.6%). Foreign orders  in particular should  confirm their downtrend, with orders from other euro area countries at the fore.  

Thursday 7 February
Euro area

ECB meeting. We stick to our view that, despite the  latest bank lending survey’s failure to  prove reassuring, the ECB will not add monetary stimulus with the aim of restoring correct  monetary policy transmission in peripheral euro area countries, and will want to reassert that  it is now a matter of time before the improvement in sentiment filters through to the real  economy, and subsequently to the credit trend.

Germany.  Industrial production is expected to accelerate to 0.8% m/m in December, after  growing modestly (by only two tenths) in November, and contracting in each of the three  previous months. The year-on-year rate would in any case stay in negative territory, at -0.4%  vs. a previous reading of -2.9%. Despite a potential rebound in December, output would close  the quarter showing a sharp contraction (our estimate: -2.6%  q/q); however, we expect a  recovery early in 2013.

United States

Productivity  in 4Q 2012 should be down by -0.9% q/q, after surging in 3Q. The summer  quarter figure should be further stepped up, in light of the upward revision of GDP. In 4Q  2012 the drop in output should be accompanied by a positive change in working hours,  approximately in line with the trend recorded in the previous quarter. Unit labour cost should  accelerate significantly, also driven by the early payment of incomes in order to avoid the  planned tax hike at the beginning of 2013.  

Friday 8 February
Euro area

Italy. Industrial production  is expected to have rebounded only partially in December (our  estimate: +0.3% m/m) after dropping (on average by over one per cent) in each of the three  previous months. The year-on-year change would  stay deep in negative territory, at -10.5%  unadjusted and at -5% adjusted by workdays. The reading would be compatible with a  contraction of industrial output of slightly more than 2% q/q in the closing quarter of 2012,  which would signal a marked decline in the same period for GDP as well.
United States

The  US trade balance deficit  in December is estimated to have decreased to -47.5 billion  dollars, from -48.7 billion the previous month. In November, the deficit had widened by 6.7  billion dollars, due to a drop in exports and to a sharp increase in imports. December should  be shielded from price effects, and the estimated reduction of the deficit should be due to  volumes. As regards exports, a sustained rise is expected, of close to +1%m/m, following the  November decline (-3.5% m/m) made worse by the effects of hurricane Sandy. The trend of  imports should stay positive, while slowing compared to the November surge (+3.8% m/m).


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