The Arabica coffee front month future price is trading at close to a 5-year low and net speculative positioning on ICE is deeply short and over one standard deviation below its 5-year average...
– We believe that coffee prices will be less sensitive to weather conditions in Brazil now that the Brazilian 2013/14 harvest is largely complete. Weather conditions elsewhere will also have a diffused impact on prices because production is fragmented in the countries that start their harvest in October.
– With global production remaining high, we believe the current price is justified, but we are watching a number of catalysts that could drive prices higher:
o A substantial increase in rust fungus;
o Further intervention from the Brazilian Government could absorb supply; and/or
o Appreciation of the Brazilian Real could encourage farmers to withhold stock.
Fuente: ETFWorld.es – ETFSecurities