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Technical Analysis: ISE National 30 : buying the pull-back

The ISE National 30 index comprises the thirty most important stocks traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. It has a bearish dynamic evidenced by a succession of troughs and peaks which are lower and lower and confirmed by the orientation of the 50-day moving average.   However, the recent reintegration of the major support  ...


Day By Day – Indipendent Research


at 64,590 points (a 38% retracement of the rise marked between 2008 and 2010) resulted in a strong bullish recovery to allow it to reach the last peak of the market. This move demonstrates the strength of the Turkish index in this crash period. This configuration puts the bearish trend in question. We are therefore neutral in the medium-term, without anticipating new low points for the next few weeks.

26092011_1


Close price68582.45

2 months OpinionNEUTRAL
2 weeks OpinionPOSITIVE

Resistances72980 / 76210 pts
Supports68187 / 66163 pts

Anticipation :

Anticipation  :
In the short-term, despite the recent increase in Turkey’s sovereign rating by Standard & Poor’s (from the category of «speculative» to the category of «investment»), the upturn was stopped dead by the major resistance at 72,980 points. Contact with this obstacle caused a severe decline in prices, thus reviving the bearish dynamics. However, crashes all have an end and it seems that the market, as a whole, indicates that we are approaching the low point (the safe havens such as gold – and commodities in general – declining at the same time as stocks, the Bund is losing its strength …). Buying off a pull-back, following a final bearish acceleration, close to the solid support at 64,590 points, corresponding to the key threshold of the 38% retracement of the rise marked between 2008 and 2010, therefore seems relevant. We set the target of this positive scenario at 72,980 points and place the stop below the major support at 64,590 point
Traker’s NameLeverageExpense ratio
EasyETF DJ Turkey Titans 20 (EUR)x10,65%
iShares MSCI Turkeyx10,74%
Lyxor ETF Turkeyx10,65%

Follow-up Analysys: Our DBD Tracker dated 12/09/2011 recommended the sale of the Eurostoxx50. Since then, prices have met our target of 1946 points and we closed the position with a performance of 4.6%.


* A leverage of 1 means that the ETF/Tracker has the same performance as the underlying index. A leverage of 2 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will have twice the performance of the underlying index. A leverage of -1 indicates that the ETF/Tracker will perform opposite that of the index: it will rise while the index falls, and vice versa.

 


DISCAIMER

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Source: ETFWorld – Day By Day – Indipendent Research

 

 

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