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RUSSIA_MATRIOSCHE

Technical Analysis: Russia RTS: A flag is about to be triggered

The RTS – Russian Trading System Index – is an index composed of 50 Russian stocks listed on the Moscow Stock ....


Day By Day – Indipendent Research


…Exchange. It has, since April 2011, a bearish trend evidenced by a series of troughs and peakswhich are lower and lower and confirmed by the orientationof the 100-day moving average.This dynamic was stopped by the major support at 1202.60 points, a key level already tested several times since 2009. This solid support should contain the decline for the next few weeks: we are therefore neutral in the medium-term.
 

24102011_1

Anticipation  :
In the shorter-term, the recoverymovement initiated off the major support at 1202.60 points allowed the index to rise above the previous peak at 1401 points (a 38% retracement of the latest bearish acceleration) before consolidating in a flag pattern. The exit from the top of this continuation pattern, validated by the overflow of 1462.40 points, should result in a bullish impulse.
We are thereforepositive in the short-term and envision a rallying towards the resistance at  1527 points (a strong resistance: 62% of the last bearish acceleration and 38% of the last two bearish legs) in the upcoming sessions. We set the invalidation threshold for this positive scenario slightly below the support at 1401 points.

Close price1485.73

2 months OpinionNEUTRAL
2 weeks OpinionPOSITIVE

Resistances1462,4 / 1527 pts
Supports1401 / 1335,59 pts


Follow-up Analysys: Our DBD Tracker dated 03/10/2011 recommended the purchase of a pullback in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since then, the scenario unravels as anticipated and prices are approaching our target of 11,880 points, or a performance of 7.7%.

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Source: ETFWorld – Day By Day – Indipendent Research

 

 

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